On 3 February, the U.S deployed a guided-missile destroyer and two U.S. coast guard boats to patrol the bay of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital. The vessels form part of Operation Southern Spear, the name given to the massive deployment of U.S. military assets in the Caribbean since September 2025, in what has ostensibly been a counter-narcotic campaign. While President Donald Trump’s administration has stopped short of threatening Haiti with military intervention, it has intimated via social media that it is intent on quashing attempts by members of the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) to oust Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé before the council’s mandate expires on 7 February. The naval presence appears to provide the latest proof of Washington’s willingness to use the threat of force to shape politics in the Western hemisphere.

Haiti is in the midst of political tumult and uncertainty. Established in early 2024, the nine-member presidential council, which works alongside the prime minister and a cabinet, was meant to hand over power to elected authorities this month. But the government has been unable to push back criminal gangs that control most of Port-au-Prince and have expanded into other areas. Although Haiti saw its last polls in 2016, rampant insecurity has made it impossible to organise elections. A vote is currently scheduled for August, but few Haitians think that is a realistic target.

With the TPC’s term in office about to expire, pressure has mounted on Haiti’s politicians to broker a new political arrangement. Progress has nevertheless been scant. Wrangling between rival political forces stepped up over the last month as members of the TPC sought to find ways to hold on to their posts and safeguard themselves against legal action if they have to leave office. Some council members tried unsuccessfully to remove the current head of the body, Laurent Saint-Cyr, a mutiny that began after Saint-Cyr opposed efforts to extend the council’s mandate and replace Prime Minister Fils-Aimé. Then, five council members signed a resolution to replace the prime minister. Sources told Crisis Group the signatories hoped to appoint someone who would protect their interests once they leave office.

The Trump administration and other foreign governments reacted with anger to the latest manoeuvring. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Fils-Aimé on 23 January, emphasising that Washington had placed its trust in him. U.S. authorities went on to announce visa revocations for four unnamed members of the TPC and a cabinet minister, all reportedly as punishment for their plotting to remove the prime minister.

For now, U.S. pressure appears to have quelled the dissenters, and Fils-Aimé appears set to remain in his post after 7 February. But negotiations to decide what, if anything, will replace the current TPC continue. As the Gang Suppression Force, a multinational security mission charged with helping Haitian security forces fight gangs, gets ready to deploy, clarity on who will govern Haiti is essential. Countries contributing to this force will want to know they are working alongside a government whose legitimacy is undisputed.