To many officials in Washington, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appears to be on the ropes. The U.S. military has built up its largest naval deployment in the southern Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s, blown up small boats allegedly carrying drugs, and sent an aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region. In October, President Donald Trump authorized the CIA to mount covert operations in Venezuela. Top members of Trump’s team insist that Maduro is losing his grip on power and will soon either resign or be ousted by his own military. As James Story, the former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, told Politico, the Trump administration sees three options for Maduro: “Exile him, extradite him, or send him to meet his maker.”

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October, is equally confident about Maduro’s imminent downfall. “With or without negotiation, Maduro is leaving,” she said in an interview after she was granted the award. Machado has been vocally supportive of the U.S. military pressure on Maduro, even as she insists that a full invasion of Venezuela will not be necessary. “Maduro started this war, and Trump is finishing it,” she declared this month. Top government figures in Venezuela are certainly aware of the growing possibility of targeted U.S. drone, rocket, or missile strikes. Trump has long claimed to advocate restraint in foreign policy, but the United States’ attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June sent a message that the administration is willing to intervene beyond U.S. borders.

A clear majority of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. But the assumption that forcefully overthrowing the current government will lead to a smooth transition to democracy is dangerous. Venezuela is full of armed groups that would resist the regime’s collapse and undermine any effort to restore the rule of law. Generals currently loyal to Maduro might install an even more repressive leader. Without a viable strategy for what comes after the government falls, ousting Maduro could lead to even greater repression and hardship for Venezuelans.

The full article can be read on the Foreign Affairs website.