On 30 March, Somali federal forces entered Baidoa, the largest city in the country’s Southwest state, and ousted regional president Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen. The incursion came after weeks of escalating tensions between the state’s leader and Mogadishu, as political unrest in Somalia continues to rise on the back of a fierce dispute between the federal government and its opponents over elections due this year. 

Tensions between Southwest state and Somali federal authorities came to a head in late March when Lafta-Gareen defied Mogadishu’s poll plans and hastily organised his own snap re-election. In response, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud ordered military reinforcements to Buur Hakaba, a town 65km from Baidoa where militias opposed to Lafta-Gareen had been mobilising. Those forces left Buur Hakaba on 29 March, battled with some Al-Shabaab militants along the way – large stretches of the state are held by the jihadists – and entered the city the next day. Most of Lafta-Gareen’s forces chose to stand down instead of fighting, quashing fears of large-scale violence in the city. 

Late on 30 March, Lafta-Gareen announced his resignation and flew to Nairobi. In all likelihood, he had banked on the backing of Ethiopian troops, deployed in Baidoa for more than a decade as part of the African Union mission. Ethiopia’s government, however, appeared to decide that placating Mogadishu was more important than supporting a sub-national ally. Lafta-Gareen’s ham-fisted attempt to secure another term had also alienated communities in Southwest state who might otherwise have resisted Mogadishu’s troop deployment. 

The federal government’s victory in Baidoa appears to be the first major act in what promises to be a turbulent election cycle. Emboldened by its success, Mogadishu is now likely to follow through with its electoral reforms, starting in Southwest state. Mogadishu aims to introduce universal suffrage at the district, state and national level in Somalia, shifting from clan-based indirect elections. But its opponents decry the fact that national elections, due by 15 May, are under-prepared and will inevitably be delayed.

Lafta-Gareen’s fall from power also signals the end of an uneasy alliance with President Mohamud. When Mohamud was first elected he needed support from member states for his plans to revise Somalia’s constitution and roll out electoral reforms. In return, Mohamud endorsed an indefinite election delay for state elections, prolonging Lafta-Gareen’s term in office well beyond its original end date in 2022. In recent months, however, Lafta-Gareen grew concerned that Mohamud was quietly supporting opposition politicians in the state. Discussions between the two men failed to resolve their differences, prompting Lafta-Gareen to announce his opposition to Mohamud’s reforms, and turning Southwest into the third Somali state after Puntland and Jubaland to object to them. 

Mogadishu’s decision to deploy armed forces to Southwest does not bode well for the prospects of reaching a wider agreement over the elections. Rather than resorting to military force, Somalia’s government should use the space provided by its victory to discuss with its critics exactly when and how Somalia’s next round of polls will be held.