Following days of increasingly strident demands from U.S. President Donald Trump for concrete results in Mexico’s anti-crime fight, President Claudia Sheinbaum on 20 January transferred 37 members of criminal groups to U.S. custody. The handover marked the third time Sheinbaum has transferred indicted and convicted drug traffickers to the U.S. Critics suggest that the 92 transfers carried out so far violate due process, as they circumvent an extradition treaty that requires lengthy court proceedings.

The latest move comes in the wake of the 3 January U.S. military raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, after which Trump and senior officials proffered threats against a number of other Latin American countries. Among other things, Trump said “cartels are running” Mexico and the U.S. is ready “to start now hitting land”. Fearing unilateral U.S. strikes on drug traffickers and laboratories on Mexican soil, Mexico City responded with a flurry of diplomacy. On 15 January, the two governments agreed that they “must continue delivering tangible actions to strengthen cooperation and meaningful outcomes to counter cartels”.

Each capital nevertheless appears to have its own definition of “meaningful outcomes”. Sheinbaum and top Mexican officials say they have seized 320 tonnes of drugs, captured over 41,000 organised crime suspects and achieved a sustained decline in homicides during her term to date. The U.S. State Department, however, said the same day that “incremental progress” is “unacceptable”. While the transfer of high-level suspects may help placate the White House temporarily, media reports indicate that Trump wishes to see U.S. troops involved directly in operations against cartels – whether unilaterally or jointly with Mexican counterparts. Sheinbaum has so far flatly rejected this possibility.

The 37 suspects handed to the U.S. include operatives of Mexico’s most powerful and lethal criminal groups, including Pedro Insunza Coronel, captured on New Year’s Eve and charged in a San Diego court with narco-terrorism and providing material support to the Sinaloa Cartel, which the U.S. now lists as a foreign terrorist organisation. He is also linked to a consignment of over one tonne of fentanyl seized in December 2024, the largest in Mexican history. Other suspects are connected to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Noreste Cartel. U.S. authorities will likely seek to extract information from these suspects for use in future efforts to combat transnational organised crime. 

What is less clear is whether this transfer will reduce violence in Mexico. Evidence suggests that placing high-value targets in U.S. custody has tended to spur fighting in conflict-hit areas. Sinaloa, for instance, is still reeling from the cartel infighting that began with the kidnapping and U.S. rendition of one of its leaders, “El Mayo” Zambada, in 2024. Over 2,700 people have been killed and close to 3,200 more are reported disappeared. Sheinbaum’s aggressive security strategy against criminal outfits and extraordinary concessions to Trump have yet to prove that they will bring peace to the parts of Mexico worst affected by drug-related violence.