The killing of Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, the only son of late leader Muammar al-Qadhafi still living in Libya, has sent shock waves through a country divided between two rival governments, each backed by its own military coalition. Though Saif al-Islam held no official position and lived a life shielded from the public eye in western Libya, a sizeable minority of Libyans still longed for his political comeback. For this very reason, he had enemies, especially among the elites currently in power.

According to statements from his family and close associates, on 3 February four masked gunmen broke into Saif al-Islam’s residence in the western town of Zintan and shot him dead. Reports from the attorney general’s office confirm that he died of gunshot wounds. The assassins’ identity remains unknown, but some of the deceased’s associates and friends were quick to lay the blame on Khalifa Haftar, the powerful leader of the east-based Libyan Arab Armed Forces, and his children, who reportedly feared Saif al-Islam’s lingering popularity. Others have accused Osama Juweili, a military leader from Zintan, claiming that he could have carried out the killing to win Haftar’s favour. Some Libyan analysts suggest it may even have been the work of a foreign hit squad.

So far, the only major Libyan public figure who is not under suspicion is Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba. Supporters of Saif al-Islam apparently enjoyed cordial ties with Dabaiba, who was a senior official in the Qadhafi era.

That said, the timing of the killing is puzzling. Saif al-Islam lived a quiet life in a remote corner of a desert plateau. It remains unclear why anybody would want to assassinate him now: despite his popularity and Libya’s internal divisions, there is no imminent prospect of a political shake-up that could have brought him to power. In any event, Saif al-Islam did not seem to pose much of a threat to established elites. After his father’s downfall, he only gave one media interview, in November 2021; that same month, he also made his last public appearance in the southern city of Sebha to enlist as a candidate in the presidential election. The ballot was supposed to be held in December that year, but at the last minute it was postponed indefinitely.

Even so, the killing might upset Libya’s delicate political balance. Unlike the country’s other political leaders, Saif al-Islam’s supporters do not count on an organised military force. But the blame game over who was behind the assassination could fracture loyalties within the Haftar camp or dent the current entente between the Haftar clan and Dabaiba, potentially unsettling a fragile period of peace in Libya. Most Libyans continue to suffer extreme economic hardship due to price hikes, and anger at the country’s political supremos is mounting. The constituency that supported Saif al-Islam, along with other, opportunistic forces, could spot in this killing more reasons to shun Libya’s current leaders and mobilise for change.