Sudan’s army-led government on Monday accused Ethiopia of undertaking hostile activities, marking a worrying escalation in tensions between the two large Horn of Africa neighbours. A statement from Sudan’s foreign ministry claimed that drones launched from Ethiopia have been striking locations inside Sudan and warned Addis Ababa of unspecified consequences.

The latest spat comes on the back of months of complaints aired in private by Sudanese intelligence and security officials over the alleged construction of a new training base for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which has been fighting Sudan’s army since 2o23, in Ethiopia’s north west. A recent Reuters report cited sources stating that the base is paid for by the United Arab Emirates. Ethiopia has not commented on the reports but has previously stressed that it maintains a neutral stance in Sudan’s civil war.

Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia, which share a long border, have ebbed and flowed in recent years as the two countries have endured extreme tumult at home. Since the rise of Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018 and the 2019 end of Omar al-Bashir’s long rule in Sudan, ties between Sudan’s army and Ethiopia have oscillated between open antagonism and uneasy thaws.

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s de facto ruler, has forged security alliances with Egypt and Eritrea, both fierce regional adversaries of Ethiopia. Burhan has also sided with Egypt in its dispute with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, whereas Sudan previously tried to temper disputes between the two. Ethiopian officials also believe Sudan has offered haven and support to Ethiopia’s armed opposition groups, including those from Tigray. Between 2020 and 2022, Sudanese forces and Ethiopian militias clashed in the disputed Fashaga border area.

Sudan’s army, meanwhile, believes that Ethiopia is now aiding its enemy, the RSF. Ethiopia is a close regional ally of the United Arab Emirates, the RSF’s main patron. Sudanese officials believe that Ethiopia is emerging as an important new conduit for supplies to the RSF and also allowing the paramilitary to move troops over Ethiopian territory.

All of this is coming to a head at a moment when many fear renewed war could erupt in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and maybe between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Such a war could merge with the conflict raging in Sudan, creating an unpredictable regional conflagration. A standoff between two rival Gulf powers in the region, Saudi Arabia (which backs the Sudanese army and Eritrea) and the UAE (which supports Ethiopia and the RSF), makes the situation even more combustible.

Sudan and Ethiopia have taken care in recent years not to allow bilateral relations to suffer a full-blown rupture. In 2024, Abiy flew to Port Sudan to meet with Burhan directly. Now is the time for the two leaders to try once again to contain their differences and avoid an escalating proxy war, which could bring greater turmoil to both countries and the region at large.