In response to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign that began 28 February, Iran staged a string of attacks on vessels off its southern coast that has sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – affecting not only energy supplies but also roughly one third of the global fertiliser trade. The impact will be felt around the world, but the pain will be especially acute for small farmers in poor countries, for whom fertiliser represents a large chunk of production costs. They will likely react by planting less, creating yet more scarcity in places that have already seen too much of it, like war-ravaged Sudan. By far the best way to short-circuit this crisis-in-the-making would be for the parties to stop the war, or arrive at a ceasefire, but the signs are not propitious. Any realistic effort to lessen the humanitarian effects of the new Middle East war needs to rely on something other than the success of diplomacy aimed at ending or pausing the war.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by the UN and Türkiye in 2022 could provide a precedent for the Strait of Hormuz. Working with Kyiv and Moscow, diplomats arranged to allow shipment of grain and fertiliser from several Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea even as the war continued. The Black Sea effort did not aim to resolve the conflict but honed in on specific objectives to deliver results. It brought millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain into the market, contributing to a drop in prices of staple foods. The dip was of particular benefit in the Global South, where a significant proportion of family incomes are spent on food. 

World leaders should support a similar approach in the Gulf. The UN has taken the welcome step of announcing a task force to address maritime trade disruption through the Strait and floating an operational mechanism to permit transit for fertiliser shipments, along with humanitarian aid and select commercial imports to affected countries. The task force, working with the Secretary-General’s new envoy for the Middle East conflict, should bring together diplomatic, maritime and humanitarian specialists charged with crafting a Hormuz transit initiative. The focus should be narrow: working with all parties to develop a mechanism that allows for the unhindered flow of fertiliser, related intermediate materials (such as sulfur and ammonia) and food through the Strait, whether outgoing or incoming. The initiative would be independent of any plan to open the Strait by force. Such an approach would serve both Iranian and U.S. interests. It would protect Iran’s own food security and underline its claim that its selective control of the waterway is aimed only at belligerents. Meanwhile, it would also help farmers and consumers, while lowering the conflict’s costs to the rest of the world.

Washington and Tehran must urgently find a way to end an enormously damaging war, but the prospect of continued or even more destructive confrontation should also focus minds on immediate steps that can be taken to manage the fallout. 

Signatories (as of 30 March 2026):

1. Fola Adeola – Founder and Chairman, FATE Foundation
2. Gérard Araud – Former Ambassador of France to the United States
3. Carl Bildt – Former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden
4. Maria Livanos Cattaui – Member of the Board of Directors, Open Society Foundations; Former Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Commerce
5. Helen Clark – Former Prime Minister of New Zealand; Former Head of UNDP; Member of The Elders
6. Miriam Coronel-Ferrer – Former Senior Mediation Adviser to the United Nations; Founding Member of the Southeast Asian Women Peace Mediators
7. Nathalie Delapalme – Executive Director and Board Member of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation
8. Maria Fernanda Espinosa – Former President of the UNGA’s 73rd Session; Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of National Defence, and Coordinating Minister of Natural and Cultural Heritage of Ecuador; Chief Negotiator at COP16 and COP17
9. Gareth Evans – Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Australia
10. Sigmar Gabriel – Former Vice-Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany
11. Ralph Gonsalves – Former Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
12. Arancha González Laya – Dean, Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA), Sciences Po; Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, the European Union and Cooperation of the Government of Spain
13. Martin Griffiths – Executive Director of Mediation Group International; Former Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator at the United Nations
14. Jean-Marie Guéhenno – Arnold A. Saltzman Professor of Practice in International and Public Affairs; Director of SIPA’s Kent Global Leadership Program on Conflict Resolution
15. Gro Harlem Brundtland – Former Prime Minister of Norway; Former Director-General of the WHO; Member of The Elders
16. Stephen Heintz – President and CEO of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund
17. Mo Ibrahim – Founder and Chair, Mo Ibrahim Foundation; Founder, Celtel International
18. Bert Koenders – Former Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs; Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations
19. Pascal Lamy – Former Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO); Former European Union Commissioner for Trade
20. Jean-David Levitte – Former Ambassador of France to the United States and the United Nations in New York
21. Helge Lund – Former Chair of Novo Nordisk and bp
22. Susana Malcorra – Former Foreign Minister of Argentina; Former Chef de Cabinet of the United Nations Secretary-General
23. Lord (Mark) Malloch-Brown – Former UN Deputy Secretary-General and Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); Former President, Open Society Foundations
24. Ibrahim Mayaki – African Union Special Envoy for Food Systems; Former Prime Minister of Niger
25. Shivshankar Menon – Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former National Security Advisor
26. Saad Mohseni – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MOBY Group
27. P.J. Patterson – Former Prime Minister of Jamaica
28. Kerry Propper – Founder and Managing Partner of ATW Partners
29. Nirupama Rao – Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former Indian Ambassador to the United States
30. Mary Robinson – Former President of Ireland; Former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights; Member of The Elders
31. Juan Manuel Santos – Former President of Colombia; Nobel Peace Laureate; Chair of The Elders
32. Alexander Soros – Chair of the Open Society Foundations
33. Nathalie Tocci – Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali; Professor, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Europe