The U.S., Israel and Iran have entered a perilous new phase of direct confrontation. This weekend’s strikes and counterstrikes, which have extended to the Gulf Arab states, heighten the risk of a broader regional war. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment with significant implications for Iran’s internal stability and external power projection. Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks, particularly against Israel and U.S. military bases in the Gulf, underscore the danger of a growing multi-front escalation. While all sides may seek to calibrate their actions and avoid uncontrolled conflict, the margin for error is thin and the risk of drawing in additional actors is growing. In this online briefing, Crisis Group experts will discuss the latest developments, examine plausible pathways toward further escalation, and explore what diplomatic off-ramps are available to de-escalate and prevent a wider, protracted war.

Panellists:
Ali Vaez | Crisis Group Project Director, Iran
Mairav Zonszein | Crisis Group Senior Analyst, Israel
Michael Hanna | Crisis Group Program Director, U.S.
Yasmine Farouk | Crisis Group Project Director, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula
Max Rodenbeck | Crisis Group Project Director, Israel/Palestine

Moderator:
Lahib Higel | Crisis Group Interim Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

The panel discussion will be held in English and will be live-streamed on YouTube.