The victory of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in Hungary’s parliamentary election removes the most stubborn obstacle to European Union consensus, particularly on Ukraine: outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Time and again, Orbán defied agreements among EU partners while positioning himself as a willing helper to the bloc’s most vocal challengers, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orbán’s defeat now opens up the possibility of a new era in relations between Budapest and Brussels.

Orbán campaigned on a decidedly anti-Ukrainian platform, painting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a hindrance to peace who was draining the EU of resources and drawing Hungary closer to war. Orbán blocked a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine in March, accusing Zelenskyy of deliberately withholding Russian oil supplies to Hungary via a Soviet-era pipeline. But Magyar’s own campaign was far from pro-Kyiv. In the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has scant support in Hungary. Rather than rushing to Kyiv’s defence, Magyar focused on Orbán’s close ties to the Kremlin, accusing his government of “outright treason” following media reports detailing Budapest’s deference to Moscow. 

Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s nationalist Fidesz party, is well attuned to popular sentiment on Ukraine. His own party voted against the €90 billion loan in the European Parliament, and the Hungarian parliament overwhelmingly backed a resolution against Ukraine’s EU accession. Anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Hungary is rooted in longstanding disputes over the treatment of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine. Furthermore, Hungarian farmers – like those in other EU countries – fear competition from Ukraine’s formidable agricultural sector should trade barriers fall. In March, Magyar lambasted Zelenskyy for threatening to give Orbán’s address to Ukraine’s armed forces to “let them call him and speak to him in their own language”.

Orbán’s departure from the political stage will likely help tempers cool. Magyar has said he would end Hungary’s block on Ukraine’s urgently needed EU loan. Kyiv, for its part, may be encouraged to restore oil deliveries to Hungary in return. Magyar will also want to recover $17 billion in funds that Brussels withheld from Hungary over rule-of-law concerns during Orbán’s tenure. That said, Magyar will have to recalibrate Hungary’s foreign policy carefully. The Hungarian economy is still heavily dependent on energy supplies from Russia, and Magyar opposes the EU’s plans to cut off oil imports from Russia by the end of next year. Budapest may not begin actively helping Kyiv, but it can at least stop blocking aid from others. Even if EU-Hungary relations won’t be easy, they can become easier.

Meanwhile, without Orbán, both the White House and Kremlin have lost a reliable European contrarian who just six months ago was planning a Trump-Putin “peace summit” in Budapest. But Orbán was hardly the only obstacle to EU consensus, and others – see Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico – have pledged to “take the baton from Hungary”. Ties are poised to get warmer with Budapest, but many of the challenges embodied in the fraught EU-Hungary relationship remain.