Five weeks into the renewed war between Israel and Hizbollah, Lebanon once again finds itself embroiled in a disastrous conflict that stretches well beyond its borders. What began with Hizbollah’s missile strikes on 2 March – framed as a response to the U.S. and Israel’s killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei – has triggered an expansion of Israel’s war in Lebanon, including an ongoing ground invasion in the south. Israel appears intent on further degrading Hizbollah’s arsenal and fighting capacity, while Hizbollah shows no sign of backing down, portraying the confrontation as an existential battle that the group cannot afford to lose. 

The issue of Hizbollah’s disarmament, which lies at the heart of Israel’s war objectives, has trapped Lebanon’s leaders in a bind. They seek to assert a state monopoly over arms, yet any move against Hizbollah risks internal fragmentation and heightened domestic tensions. The war has already displaced over one million people and is deepening Lebanon’s already acute economic crisis, while also eroding the key state institutions that remain. 

In this online event, Crisis Group experts and Aurélie Daher, Lebanon Analyst and Associate Professor at Paris-Dauphine PSL University, will assess where the war stands, what Israel and Hizbollah are seeking to achieve, whether Lebanon’s leaders have any viable options, and what off-ramps still exist.

Panellists:
Aurélie Daher | Lebanon Analyst and Associate Professor, Paris-Dauphine PSL University
Max Rodenbeck | Project Director, Israel/Palestine, Crisis Group
Heiko Wimmen | Project Director, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Crisis Group

Moderator:
Christina Boutros | Senior Communications and Advocacy Officer, MENA, Crisis Group

This panel discussion will be held in English and will be live-streamed on YouTube.