Northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region has seen renewed fighting, sparking concerns that a return to war could be on the cards. On 26 January, the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), the armed wing of the Tigray’s ruling party (the Tigray People’s Liberation Front or TPLF), moved into the disputed territory of Tselemti in north-western Tigray, clashing with federal troops and militias from the neighbouring Amhara region. Then, on 29 January, the TDF entered Korem and Alamata in southern Tigray’s Raya district, another contested area, without apparent federal resistance.

The government responded by cancelling all flights to Tigray. On 31 January, it reportedly carried out drone strikes on two vehicles in the central part of the region. The next day, Tigray’s leader, Tadesse Werede complained that Addis Ababa had started “something resembling an all-out war”, and announced that the TDF would withdraw from Tselemti to de-escalate.

Even if it does so, however, the sudden flare-up spiked fears that Tigray is sliding back toward conflict, after having been the centre of a devastating civil war from 2020-2022.

Tigray and Amhara have long disputed who has dominion over Tselemti and Raya, as well as the region known as Welkait or Western Tigray. All three became part of Tigray when Ethiopia transitioned from military rule in the 1990s. But many Amhara saw this as a landgrab by the TPLF, which led Ethiopia’s new political order, and inconsistent with the areas’ historical ties. The dispute resurfaced after the TPLF lost power in 2018, and went to war with the central government two years later. During the war, Amhara militias joined the federal army in expelling hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans from the disputed areas, establishing Amhara administrations.

The areas’ fate remains unresolved. Most displaced Tigrayans have not returned home. Several thousand tried returning to Tselemti in 2024 under the army’s protection, but many say they faced challenges, including being denied access to their homes, discrimination or re-expulsion. The TPLF claim that this reflects a breach of the Pretoria agreement that ended the war, and that the TDF entered Tselemti in January to protect Tigrayan civilians there.

The recent flare-up’s broader backdrop is an escalating standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the TPLF. Last year, the TPLF ousted Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim leader, saying he was too close to Abiy. Tigray’s new administration has accused the federal government of withholding subventions and strangling its economy, and say that Addis Ababa is backing a new anti-TPLF insurgency. The federal government, meanwhile, accuses the TPLF of forming a secret pact with Eritrea amid growing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.

The recent flare-ups in northern Ethiopia suggest a return to hostilities could be in the offing, particularly related to the disputed areas, even if this outbreak proves contained. In the direst scenarios, spiralling conflict could drag Ethiopia and Eritrea back to war. The Pretoria agreement’s regional brokers – Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria – should re-engage both sides to prevent a teetering peace deal from collapsing.