On 12 January, the federal government of Somalia abruptly annulled its cooperation agreements with a longstanding partner, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The breakdown of relations between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi came hot on the heels of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, marking the first diplomatic recognition of the territory’s sovereignty since it seceded from Somalia in 1991. Somaliland is hopeful that other countries will follow Israel’s lead and consider it an independent nation. Mogadishu, which continues to see Somaliland as part of the Somali nation, suspects that Abu Dhabi lay behind Israel’s move.

Somalia’s sudden snub of the UAE is best understood as one repercussion of a bigger diplomatic rupture in the Gulf region. Mogadishu says the immediate trigger for its decision was the transit of a UAE-aligned Yemeni militia leader via Somali airspace, which occurred without the federal government’s permission. This incident followed a flare-up of fighting in Yemen, which has seen UAE-backed separatists battle allies of Saudi Arabia in the south of the country, enraging Riyadh. In response, Saudi authorities have demanded the UAE’s complete withdrawal from Yemen while redoubling backing for pro-Saudi forces.

The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has since rippled across the Horn of Africa, much as it did in 2017-2020, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf countries jockeyed with Qatar for influence in the region. Given the economic and political sway of Gulf states over the Horn of Africa, governments in the region were pressured to choose sides in the dispute. Today, competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is again playing out across the Horn of Africa, with some capitals aligned more closely with Abu Dhabi while others cleave toward Riyadh and its allies.

Relations between Somalia and the UAE had been strained for a while. Though the UAE has trained Somali soldiers and provided military equipment since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s return to power in 2022, the government increasingly resents Abu Dhabi’s security and military assistance to regional administrations such as Puntland and Jubaland, which are prone to sparring with federal authorities. Both Puntland and Jubaland have suspended their formal ties with Mogadishu in recent years, quarrelling over governance and elections. Mogadishu is also wary of the UAE’s stance toward Somaliland, where DP World, a Dubai-based company, has committed to investing more than $400 million in reviving the Berbera seaport.

While the effects of the federal government’s move have yet to become clear, Somalia’s internal divisions seem destined to widen. Mogadishu will be unable to enforce its decision on the leaders of Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland, all of which have strong security or economic ties with the UAE and have expressed their repudiation of the federal government’s directive. But Mogadishu is unlikely to have suddenly severed ties if it did not expect support from elsewhere – notably Riyadh. Should the rift in the Gulf lead to rival states backing competing administrations within Somalia, the threats to the country’s already fissiparous political set-up are sure to deepen.