Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting leader Tarique Rahman is scheduled to land in the capital city, Dhaka, on 25 December, ending 17 years of self-imposed exile. His return comes less than two months before a landmark national election. On 12 February, Bangladeshis will vote for the first time since mass protests forced long-time ruler Sheikh Hasina from power in August 2024. With Hasina’s Awami League barred from the election, and Hasina having fled the country for India, the BNP is the frontrunner for the February poll and Tarique Rahman is widely expected to lead the next government.

Tarique Rahman is political royalty in Bangladesh. He is the son of late former President Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1981, and Khaleda Zia, who twice served as prime minister in the 1990s and 2000s. The ailing Zia is still nominally the BNP’s leader, but her son took the reins in all but name almost a decade ago, from London.

His return had seemed unlikely, though, until Hasina’s abrupt downfall last year. Tarique Rahman left Bangladesh in September 2008, when the country was under a military-backed caretaker administration, ostensibly for medical treatment. Just months later, the Awami League came to power and he was convicted of a slew of crimes in absentia. He always claimed the charges were politically motivated, and earlier this year, the country’s High Court overturned them.

In June, Tarique Rahman hashed out a political agreement on the election and way forward on constitutional reforms with the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Muhammad Yunus, paving the way for his return. BNP leaders are preparing to hold the party’s “biggest-ever rally” when he touches down, and hope that having him present on the campaign trail will benefit the BNP’s prospects.

The party could use a boost. BNP officials seem worried about the party’s slipping popularity, which they blame on “smear campaigns” accusing their members of extortion and violence. In contrast, support for Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party and a one-time BNP ally, seems to be swelling, particularly among younger people frustrated with traditional politics. The BNP is still viewed as likely to win, but a narrow majority would be seen as a poor result for the party and provide Jamaat with a strong platform to push back on its agenda and prepare for a tilt at the next election.

While Tarique Rahman’s arrival may be a shot in the arm for the BNP, uncertainties abound. He led the party ably from abroad – a key achievement was preventing a split ahead of the January 2024 election – and many BNP activists are fiercely loyal to him. But geographic distance has provided a buffer from the rough-and-tumble world of Bangladesh politics. His success in this next phase of his political life will turn on whether he can appeal to disillusioned younger voters, sharpen messaging, unite a party riven by disputes over candidate selection, and convince a nation emerging from a tumultuous period that he can deliver the brighter future it seeks.