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Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border

Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border

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Analyst’s Notebook

/ Asia-Pacific

2 minutes

Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border

Crisis Group expert Matthew Wheeler explains how Cambodia and Thailand returned to hostilities, and why prospects for de-escalation right now look bleak

An exchange of gunfire between Cambodian and Thai troops on 7 December has brought renewed fighting along the disputed border, shattering the Malaysia-brokered ceasefire that ended five days of combat on 28 July. The two sides blame each other for having triggered the latest clashes, which have already surpassed the earlier round of hostilities in scope and intensity. Over the last three days, battles have taken place at no fewer than sixteen locations along the 800km border, from the Gulf of Thailand to the Lao frontier, displacing roughly half a million civilians on both sides.

Thai authorities report that Cambodia has launched thousands of rockets and dozens of attack drones. Meanwhile, Thailand’s armed forces have reportedly conducted airstrikes and fired artillery at targets some 30km inside Cambodia. The fighting continues, and casualties are mounting. The Thai army reported eight of its soldiers killed as of 11 December and at least 68 wounded, claiming as well that 61 Cambodian soldiers had been killed. Cambodia has not divulged military casualties, but it has reported nine civilians killed and 46 wounded.

The fighting represents a complete breakdown of the July ceasefire brokered by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). U.S. President Donald Trump was instrumental in getting the two sides to sign the ceasefire, telling Bangkok and Phnom Penh that there would be no negotiations on reducing U.S. tariffs without it. On 26 October, with great fanfare, Trump presided over the signing of a joint statement between Cambodia and Thailand on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur that recommitted the parties to upholding the July pact.

But the ceasefire was tenuous from the moment it was signed. A series of landmine explosions along the border wounded eighteen Thai soldiers over the ensuing months; seven of them lost limbs. An independent investigation backed up Thai claims that the landmines were freshly planted, contrary to Cambodia’s assertion that they were a legacy of earlier wars. After one such incident on 10 November, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul suspended implementation of the October agreement.

For the moment, prospects for de-escalation are bleak. Both sides call the other the aggressor and claim to be acting in self-defence. “Cambodia wants peace, but Cambodia must strike to protect our territory”, Cambodia’s de facto leader, senate president Hun Sen, posted on Facebook on 10 December. Thailand, however, accuses its neighbour of playing the victim while engaging in provocations. Prime Minister Anwar has urged negotiations, but Prime Minister Anutin, who is gearing up for general elections in early 2026, said now is “not the time” for talks. Meanwhile, Thai army chief of staff General Chaiyaphreuk Duangpraphat said current operations aim to durably cripple Cambodia’s military so that it cannot threaten Thailand for “a long time”. Anutin later told reporters, “We can’t stop now. We’ve already given our commitment to the armed forces that they can fully carry out the planned operations”.